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CPVC能否在国内火起来?--行业前景解析

第一部分 CPVC行业现状分析

1.CPVC的物理性质及应用

     CPVCJILVHUAJULVYIXI,TASHIYOUJULVYIXI(PVC)YULVQIZAIYINFAZUOYONGXIAJINXINGQUDAIFANYINGERZHIDEDEYIZHONGXINXINGHECHENGGAOFENZICAILIAO,SHIYIZHONGBAISEHUOWEIHUANGSEKELIUDONGGUTIFENMO。JIBENXINGNENGYUPVCXIANGFANG,DANPVCSHUZHIJINGLVHUAGAIXINGHOUZHIDEDECPVCRONGJIEXINGZENGDA,HUAXUEWENDINGXINGZENGJIA,CONGERDADATIGAOLECAILIAODENAIREXING、NAISUAN、JIAN、YAN、YANGHUAJIDENGDEFUSHI,TONGSHIZURANXINGDEYIJINYIBUTIGAO。

  DANGRAN,CPVCHUIYINWEIBUTONGDELVHUAFANGSHI、ZHUANGKUANGYONGLVDEFANYINGLIANGYOUHENDADECHAYIXING,QIZHONGCORZAN(LVHUA) CPVCYOUYULVHANLIANGTIGAO,XINGNENGZHIBIAOGENGYOUXIU,ZONGTILAISHUO,CPVC ZHENGCHENGWEIYINGYONGQIANJINGGUANGKUODEYILEIXINXINGGONGCHENGSULIAO。DANYOUYUSHANGYEHUASHIJIANJIAODUAN、GEZHIZAOSHANGSHENGCHANPINZHICHAYIXINGDADENGWENTI,CPVCSUIFAZHANXUNSU,DANSHICHANGFENEZENGZHANGHUANMAN。

表1 国内主要CPVC型号性能简介与应用

项 目J-700Z-500T-500N-500
氯含量%65-7064-6561-6263-64
挥发物含量 %,≤0.40.40.40.4
热分解温度 ℃,≥105105105105
热稳定时间(165℃) S,≥90906060
筛余物(0.595mm) %,≤0.20.20.20.2
吸油率 %,≥21243029
绝对粘度 CP1.2-1.71.2-1.71.3-1.51.3-1.4
主要性能优良的耐热、耐腐蚀性,高的热变形温度及高维卡耐热度具有较好的流动性具有较好的溶解性与成膜性具有较好的溶解性与粘结性能
主要应用用于挤出生产各类耐热制品,如热水管材、耐腐蚀管材,电气管道等用于注射成型各种耐热制品,如:管件、配件等用于生产涂料等用于生产粘合剂以及用作氯化纤维的改性等

2. CPVC国外发展情况

江苏快3  CPVCSHANGYEHUASHENGCHANJIYUNYONGSHIYUSHANGSHIJI60NIANDAICHUQI,MUQIANGUOWAIDEJISHUXIANGDUICHENGSHU。GUOJICPVCSHUZHISHENGCHANXIAOSHOUCHUYUJUEDUILONGDUANZHUANGTAI,YINGYONGTIXIWANSHAN,XINGYEJIANKANGKUAISUFAZHAN。

  MUQIAN,QUANQIUYOUERSHIDUOJIAGONGSISHENGCHANCPVCSHUZHI,ZHUYAOJIZHONGZAIMEI、RI、DE、FADENGGUO,JUNCAIYONGSHUIXIANGXUANFUFASHENGCHAN。MEIGUOLUBORUNGONGSISHISHIJIEZUIDADECPVCSHENGCHANQIYE,ZAICHANZHUANGZHINIANCHANNENGYIDADAO10WANDUN,QUNIANLUBORUNXUANBUZHUNBEIYUQUANQIUDIERDACPVCSHENGCHANSHANG—RIBENDESHANJISHUIHUAXUEGONGYEZHUSHIHUISHEZUJIANHEZIQIYE,ZAITAIGUOXINJIANYIZUOCPVCGONGCHANG,GAICHANGJIHUACHANNENG3.2WANDUN,YUJIJINNIANNIANDIZHENGSHITOUCHAN,CHENGWEILUBORUNGONGSIZAIQUANQIUDEDISIZUOCPVCGONGCHANG,LINGWAILUBORUN2012NIANCHIZI1.25YIMEIYUAN,ZAIDEKESASILUYUANJIANZAOYIZUOCPVCSHENGCHANGONGCHANG(GAICHANGWEILUBORUNQUANQIUDISANZUOGONGCHANG,QITALIANGZUOFENBIEWEIYUMEIGUOKENTAJIZHOULouisville、BILISHIOevel),YIJIHUAZAIJINNIANDISIJIDUZHENGSHITOUCHAN。

江苏快3  CHULELUBORUN、RIBENJISHUIYIWAI,ZHONGYUANHUAXUE、DIANSHIGONGYE、DEGUOBASIFUHEFAGUODEAKEMADENGYESHISHIJIESHANGZHUYAODECPVCSHENGCHANQIYE。ZHEIXIEGONGSIPINGJIEZIJIJIANSHIDEPVCSHUZHISHENGCHANJICHUKAIFACHUZHUANYONGDEPVCSHUZHIYONGYUSHENGCPVCJIAGONGPEIFANGFANGMIANDOUYOUDUDAOZHICHU。SHIJIEFADAGUOJIAYIJINGXINGCHENGLEWANZHENGDECPVCYINGYONGTIXI,JUYOUCHENGSHUDEYINGYONGLINGYUHESHICHANG,YIXINGCHENGPINZHONGXILIEHUA、ZHUANYEHUAHEJINGXIHUADECHANYEGEJU,XINGYEJIANKANGKUAISUFAZHAN,ZHENGZAIZHUBUZAISHUSHUIGUANDAO、SHIZHENGGONGCHENG、MAIDIDIANLIGUANWANGDENGLINGYUQUDAIPVCSHUZHICHANPIN。

3. CPVC国内发展情况

  YOUYUCPEHECPVCJUNSHISHUIXIANGXUANFUFASHENGCHANGONGYI,CPVCDUOSHIBUFENCPECHANGJIAFUDAISHENGCHAN。JUYOUZHUANGZHICHANNENGXIAO,SHENGCHANJISHUBUCHENGSHUDENGTEDIAN。MUQIANGUONEICPVCYIBANFENWEIPEIFANGLIAOHETONGYONGLIAOLIANGDALEI,SUIZHEQILUSHIHUALVJIANCHANGLVHUAJULVYIXIZHUANYONGSHUZHIXINCHANPINQS-C62HEQS-C65GONGYEHUASHENGCHAN,GUONEICPVCYIZHICUNZAIDEYUANLIAOYIKAOJINKOUDEWENTIDEYIJIEJUE。JINQICPVCSHUZHIFAZHANXUNSU,YUNNANYANHUA、DEZHOUSHIHUA、NEIMENGGUCHENHONGLIDENGPVCCHANGJIAJIHUAXINSHANGCPVCXIANGMU,JIEZHIMUQIAN,ZANWEIYOUSHIZHIXINGJINZHAN。JIANGSUTIANTENG、SHANGHAILVJIANDENGCPVCCHANGJIAYOUJIHUAXINZENGCHANNENG,QIZHONGWEIFANGGAOXIN2WANDUNXINZHUANGZHIYIYUJINNIAN7YUEFENZHENGSHITOUCHAN,SHANGSHUCHANGJIAZHILIYUCHANPINZHILIANGDEGAIJINHEPEIFANGLIAOGONGYIDEJINYIBUCHENGSHU,LIQIUZAIZHILIANGFANGMIANZHUBUJIEJINGUOJICHANPIN。

4. 目前存在的问题

  CPVCZUOWEIYIZHONGXINXINGGONGCHENGSULIAO,ZAIGUONEIFAZHANSHIQIJIAODUAN,SHENGCHANGONGYIDEBUCHENGSHUHEZHONGDUANYONGHUDERENZHIDUZAOCHENGCPVCGUONEIYINGYONGTUIGUANGSHOUZU。MUQIANGUONEICPVCXINGYEMIANLINDEWENTIZHUYAOBIAOXIANZAIYIXIASANGEFANGMIAN:

  DIYI,MUQIANCPVCXIAOCHANNENGZHUANGZHIJUDUO。GUONEIJIAODADECPVCCHANGJIAYOUSHANGHAILVJIAN、JIANGSUTIANTENG、WEIFANGGAOXIN、DONGYINGXUYE、XIANGSHENGSUJIAODENG,DANYICHANGJIAZHUANGZHIZUIDACHANNENGZAI2WANDUN,QITAZHUANGZHICHANNENGDUOZAIYIWANDUNYIXIA,CPVCXIAOCHANNENGZHUANGZHIJUDUO。

江苏快3  DIER,SHENGCHANJISHUFANGMIANYIJIUWEINENGDADAOGUOJISHUIPING。MUQIANGUONEICPVCXINGYESHIYITONGYONGLIAOWEIZHU,PEIFANGLIAOWEIFUDESHENGCHANGEJU,KEGUIJIUYUMUQIANGUONEISHENGCHANJISHULUOHOUYUGUOJISHUIPING,MUQIANXIANJINDESHENGCHANJISHUDUOBEIMEIGUO、RIBENLONGDUAN,GUONEICHULESHANGHAILVJIANCAIQUZISHENYANFADEJISHUZHIWAI,QITACHANGJIADUOCAIYONGSHUIXIANGFA,GEBIELVJIANCHANGJIAJIHUAYINJINFAGUOAKEMADECPVCSHENGCHANJISHU。ZHUOCHUANGZIXUNJINGGUODIAOCHAFAXIAN,GUONEICPVCXINGYECUNZAIYINBUNENGDADAODINGDANYAOQIUERWUFAJIEDANDEXIANXIANG,YOUYUSHIMIANDUIYIXIEGUOWAIDINGDAN。ZAIJISHUFANGMIANLUOHOUBEIHOUKEYIKANDAOMUQIANZHONGXIAOCPVCQIYEQUEFAZIJINZHICHI,XIAOQIYEZAIYINXINGDAIKUANHEFUYUZIJINFANGMIANCUNZAIRUOSHI,BUNENGTOURUDALIANGZIJINZAIJISHUYANJIUFANGMIAN。CHANNENGZHUANGZHIXIAO、CHANPINZHILIANGBUGAOYESHICPVCZAIGUONEIYINGYONGSHOUDAOXIANZHIDEYUANYINZHIYI。

  DISAN,GUONEIXUQIUJINZHANHUANMAN,QICHANPINZHUZOUCHUKOUDINGDAN。MUQIANGUONEICPVCGUANCAIXUQIULIANGBUDAO4WANDUN,GUONEICPVCCHANPINZHUZOUCHUKOUDINGDAN。MUQIANGUONEIDUICPVCDERENSHICUNZAILIANGFANGMIANWUQU:YISHIBUNENGCHONGFENRENSHIDAOCPVCDEYOUZHIXINGNENG;ERSHI,BUFENZHONGDUANYONGHUYISHIDAOCPVCDEZHONGYAOXING,DANCHUYUDUIZISHENLIYIDEKAOLV,TOUHUANCAILIAODESHIQINGSHIYOUFASHENG,ZAIJIANCHAQIJIANHUOYANGPINZHONGSHIYONGCPVC,DANZAIQITACHANGHESHIYONGPVCDEXIANXIANGLVJIANBUXIAN,HOUQIGUONEIXUQIUDEDAKAISHANGXUZHENGFUJIADAJIANCHALIDUHEJIADAYONGHUDUICPVCXINGNENGFANGMIANDECHONGFENRENZHI。

第二部分 CPVC与CPE的关联

  MUQIANSHANGHAILVJIAN、JIANGSUTIANTENG、DONGYINGXUYE、WEIFANGGAOXIN、XIANGSHENGSULIAOWUDACPVCCHANGJIATONGSHISHENGCHANCPE,JIUJINGCPEYUCPVCYOUHEGUANLIANNI?DIYI,SHENGCHANGONGYIFANGMIAN,CHULESHANGHAILVJIANYIWAI,JIANGSUTIANTENGDENGCPVCSHENGCHANJUNCAIYONGSHUIXIANGXUANFUFA,YUCPESHENGCHANXIANGTONG;DIER,CPEYUCPVCYUANLIAOZHIYIJUNWEI,FANGBIANCHANGJIATONGYICAIGOU,ZAIYELVJIAGEFANGMIANYIYOUYIDINGSHANGLIANGKONGJIAN。XIAMIANCONGCHANGJIADEJIAODULAIFENXICPVCHECPE:

表2 CPE与CPVC工艺、利润、客户群体对比


CPECPVC分析
工艺方面:水相悬浮法CPE生产工艺主要有水相法和酸相法,酸相法比较先进,而水相法亦相对较为成熟,中小厂家均可掌握此工艺,在产品稳定性和排污量方面两者存在一定差异。该工艺对CPVC来说较为落后,基本上以生产低端通用料为主,生产高端配方料存在阻力。大中厂家技术存在进步空间,小厂家缺乏科研费用等有力支撑,难以在CPVC方面做出突破。
利润方面CPE的主要原料为液氯和专用料,两者的单耗分别为0.78吨和0.625吨。2014年半年CPE的利润空间在500元/吨与-200元/吨之间。CPVC的主要原料为液氯和氯化聚氯乙烯专用树脂,据悉专用树脂的单耗为0.88吨,液氯的单耗受产品型号不同略有差异,基本在0.6-0.8吨。从目前来看,CPVC的利润空间比CPE大。
客户群体方面主要客户群体是国内,CPE出口量占比不到10%,且部分大中厂家拥有进出口权证。目前国内CPVC需求进展缓慢,CPVC主走出口订单,在客户群体占比上,国外占大臂江山。从客户基础来看,大中厂家已占有一定国外市场或后期可开发国外市场,小厂家缺乏优势。
总结:从以上三个方面可以看出,对CPE和CPVC来说,在后期发展规划方面,受技术、客户基础等方面影响,小厂家以维持目前的CPE生产为主,而在CPE产能已严重过剩的局面下,大中厂家在维护目前的CPE生产的同时,在后期扩建方面,对CPE持谨慎态度,而CPVC的吸引力相对较大,事实证明,部分大中厂家计划后期加大CPVC的生产与研发。

第三部分 CPVC与PVC对比分析

  YUPVCXIANGBI,YONGCPVCSHUZHIZHICHENGDEGUANCAI、GUANJIANGENGJIAJIANGU,SHIYONGWENDUJIJIEZHIFANWEIGENGGUANG,CHANPINGENGNAICHONGJI、NAIFUSHI,ZURANXINGNENGGAO。

表3 PVC树脂与CPVC树脂部分指标对比

指标PVCCPVC
密度(g/cm3)1.57—1.721.48—1.53
维卡软化温度(℃)70—7585—105
抗张强度(MPa)39-5854-70
弯曲强度(MPa)105102
线性热膨胀系数(K-1)(6—7)×10-5(7.5—8)×10-5
断裂伸长率12050

XIAMIANCONGLVJIANCHANGJIADEJIAODULAIFENXIPVCYUCPVC:

表4 PVC与CPVC性能


PVCCPVC分析
性能方面CPVC的含氯量比PVC高,其阻燃性能更好,在溶解性、化学稳定性增加,耐腐蚀性方面亦优异于PVC。
利润方面以山东地区为例,一季度PVC企业亏损超过600元/吨,二季度底PVC企业平均亏损-307元/吨。受液氯采购价格不同影响,CPVC厂家利润之间略有差异,目前仍有利可图。单从利润方面看,CPVC项目比PVC项目更适合厂家后期规划。
客户群体方面PVC的客户以型材、异型材、管材等市场为主,主要集中在国内,进口料主要走高端。CPVC主走出口订单,后期发展空间较大的市场主要集中在印度、俄罗斯等地。氯碱厂家多为规模型大厂,在开发国外市场方面存在潜力。
供需方面PVC产能已经严重过剩。随着相关行业对其特性认识的进一步深入,CPVC管材的市场需求还将快速增长,若国内需求全面打开,则处于供不应求的局面,可以CPVC产能存在增长空间。从产能方面来看,相对于产能过剩的行业,供应与需求均存在增长空间的CPVC似乎更能吸引投资者的眼光。
总结:氯碱厂家之所以对CPVC感兴趣,主要原因是:第一,PVC通用料发展空间已不大;第二,从产品配置方面看,部分厂家寻求耗氯产品。事实证明,部分氯碱厂家对新增CPVC项目进展较快,其中内蒙古晨宏力和上海氯碱为代表性企业。

第四部分 CPVC行业前景分析

江苏快3  CPVCJUYOUYOUYIDEHOUJIAGONGXINGNENG,GUANGFANYINGYONGYUHUAGONG、JIANZHU、QICHEYIJIDIANQIDENGLINGYU,SHIJINJINIANLAIYINGYONGLINGYUFAZHANXUNSUDEXINXINGSULIAOCAILIAO,YIMEINIAN10%ZUOYOUDESUDUZENGZHANG。LINGWAICPVCRUJINZUOWEIYIXIEJINSHUCAILIAODEHUANDAICHANPIN,YICHENGWEIGONGCHENGSUJIAOCAILIAOFEICHANGZHONGYAODEYIHUAN,YOUQISHIZAIRESHUIGUANZHONGDEYINGYONGQIANNENGJUDA。

  YINAIREXINGWEILI,YOUYUZUIGAOSHIYONGWENDUKEDA100-105℃,CPVCGUANTEBIESHIYONGYUJISHUIGONGCHENGHEJIZHONGGONGNUANXITONGZHONGSHUSONGRESHUI。

  CONGQIANWENKEYIKANCHU,CPVCWULUNSHIZAIXINGNENGFANGMIANHECHANNENGZENGZHANGKONGJIANFANGMIANJUNCUNZAIYOUYUEXING,MUQIANXUYAOJIEJUEDEWENTISHIJISHUGONGYIHEGUONEIXUQIU。ZAIJISHUGONGYIFANGMIAN,ZIJINJIAOWEIXIONGHOUDECHANGJIAKEYINJINGUOWAIXIANJINJISHU,LIRU,FAGUOAKEMADESHENGCHANGONGYI,HUOJIANLIYANJIUBUMENZIZHUYANFAXINDESHENGCHANGONGYI,LIRU,SHANGHAILVJIAN。JISHUGONGYIFANGMIANDEKUNJINGXIANGDUIJIAOXIAO,NEIMESHENGXIALAIDEZUIDANANTIJIUSHIGUONEIXUQIUDEQUANMIANDAKAI,MUQIANGUONEICPVCGUANCAIZHUYAOYINGYONGZAIFANGFUHEDIANLICAILIAOSHANG,MINYONGLINGYUYINGYONGJIAOSHAO,DUIZHAOGUOWAI57%YINGYONGYUMINYONGDEQINGKUANG,SHICHANGQIANLIJIAODA。MUQIANGUONEIXUQIUSHANGWEIDAKAIDEZHUYAOYUANYINSHI:DIYI,GUONEIDUOSHUCHANPINJIAGONGXINGNENGJIAOCHA,BUNENGMANZUXIAYOUKEHUXUQIU,DANSHIYIDANJISHUGONGYIFANGMIANDEWENTIJIEJUE,ZHEIGEWENTIYEJIUBUSHIWENTILE;DIER,CONGXIAYOUYONGHUZISHENLIYICHUFA,MUQIANGUONEIDUIJIANCAISHICHANGDEJIANCHAGENGWEIYANGE,HUANBAO、SHIYONGSHOUMINGCHANGDECAILIAOSHIFAZHANQUSHI,FUHEXINGYEJIANCHABIAOZHUN、YUSHIJUJIN,CAISHIGUONEIQIYEDEZHANGQIFAZHANZHIDAO,YOUCIKEJIAN,GUONEIXUQIUDEQUANMIANDAKAICUNZAIKENENGXING。

第五部分 CPVC能否火起来?

  JIRANGUONEIXUQIUDEQUANMIANDAKAICUNZAIKENENGXING,JISHUGONGYIFANGMIANHUOYINJIN、HUOZICHUANG、HUOYANYONGSHUIXIANGFA,NAYIGEDOUBUSHIWENTI,CPVCDEFAZHANQIANJINGJIWEIKEGUAN,WEILAIWUNIANZAIGUONEISHICHANGSHIBIXINGCHENGYIGURECHAO。BUDEBUSHUOSHANGHAILVJIAN、NEIMENGGUCHENHONGLIYOUXIANJIANZHIMING,JUZHUOCHUANGZIXUNLEJIE,NEIMENGGUCHENHONGLI10WANDUNCPVCXIANGMUJIHUAJINNIANNIANDIZHENGSHITOURUYUNXING,SHANGHAILVJIANJIHUAXINSHANG8WANDUNCPVCXIANGMU,DIYIQI4WANDUNXIANGMUZHENGZAISHISHI。SUIZHEXINXINGSULIAOCAILIAODEBUDUANTUIGUANG,YIJIDUIJIAGONGXINGNENGYOUYUEDECAILIAOZHUIQIU,CPVCJIANGYIZUIKUAIDESUDUJINRUDAJIADESHIYE,CONGERZAIGUONEISHISHIZAIZAIDEHUOYIBA!


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